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Why is the forward exchange rate forecast biased? A survey of recent evidence

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  • Charles Engel

Abstract

Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward premium. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums is surveyed. Included in this area are tests of the consumption CAPM, tests of the latent variable model, and portfolio-balance models of risk premiums. General equilibrium models of the risk premium are examined and their empirical implications explored. The survey does not cover the important areas of learning and peso problems, tests of rational expectations based on survey data, or the models of irrational expectations and speculative bubbles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 95-06.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:95-06

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Keywords: Foreign exchange futures ; Foreign exchange rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
  3. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen--Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
  4. Hodrick, Robert J & Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "Do We Need Multi-Country Models to Explain Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Bond Return Dynamics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Steinar Holden & Dag Kolsrud & Birger Vikøren, 1995. "Noisy signals in target zone regimes Theory and Monte Carlo experiments," Discussion Papers 160, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  6. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Pereira Guimarães, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/123, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
  8. Hodrick, Robert & Vassalou, Maria, 2002. "Do we need multi-country models to explain exchange rate and interest rate and bond return dynamics?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1275-1299, July.

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