Testing the stability of implied probability density functions
AbstractImplied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed options prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. However, to date little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence users can place in the summary statistics, for example skewness or the 99th percentile, derived from fitted PDFs. This paper begins to address these questions by examining the absolute and relative robustness of two of the most common methods for estimating implied smile methods. The changes resulting from randomly perturbing quoted prices by no more than a half tick provide a lower bound on the confidence intervals of the summary statistics derived from the estimated PDFs. Test are conducted using options contracts tied to Short Sterling futures and the FTSE 100 index--both trading on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. Our test show that the smoothed implied volatility smile method dominates the double-lognormal as a technique for estimating implied PDFs when average goodness-of-fits are comparable for both methods.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-99-21.
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 834, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernie Flores).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.