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China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

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Author Info
Chad Bown
Meredith Crowley

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Abstract

This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-04-28.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-04-28

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Keywords: Exports Trade

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  6. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:att:wimass:192049 is not listed on IDEAS
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  9. Hansen, Wendy L & Prusa, Thomas J, 1996. "Cumulation and ITC Decision-Making: The Sum of the Parts Is Greater Than the Whole," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 746-69, October.
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  11. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Debaere, Peter, 2005. "Small Fish - Big Issues The Effect of Trade Policy on the Global Shrimp Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2007. "Trade deflection and trade depression," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 176-201, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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