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China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

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Author Info
Chad Bown
Meredith Crowley

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Abstract

This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-04-28.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-04-28

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Keywords: Exports ; Trade;

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  7. repec:att:wimass:192049 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hansen, Wendy L & Prusa, Thomas J, 1996. "Cumulation and ITC Decision-Making: The Sum of the Parts Is Greater Than the Whole," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 746-69, October.
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  10. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2007. "Trade deflection and trade depression," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 176-201, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Patrick A. Messerlin, 2004. "China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 105-130.
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  14. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1999. "Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Bilateral Opportunism and the Rules of GATT," NBER Working Papers 7071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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