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Managerial incentives and financial contagion

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  • Sujit Chakravorti
  • Anna Ilyina
  • Subir Lall

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to examine the comovements of asset prices with seemingly unrelated fundamentals, as an outcome of the optimal portfolio strategies of large institutional fund managers. In emerging markets, the dominant presence of dedicated fund managers whose compensation is linked to the outperformance of their portfolio relative to a benchmark index, and of global fund managers whose compensation is linked to the absolute returns of their portfolios, leads to portfolio decisions that result in systematic interactions between asset prices even in the absence of asymmetric information. The model endogenously determines the optimal amount of cash holdings or leverage, the incidence of relative value versus macro hedge fund strategies, and how prices can systematically deviate from the long-term fundamental value for long periods of time, with limits to the arbitrage of this differential. Managerial compensation contracts, while optimal at a firm level, may lead to inefficiencies at the macroeconomic level. We identify conditions when a negative shock to one emerging market affects another market negatively.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-03-21.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-03-21

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Mutual funds;

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References

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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2094, The World Bank.
  5. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  7. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
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Cited by:
  1. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," NBER Working Papers 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gaston Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility across Financial Crises," CEPN Working Papers hal-00845254, HAL.
  4. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2010. "Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 109-134, April.
  5. Irina Bunda & A. Javier Hamann & Subir Lall, 2007. "Emerging Debt Markets: What Do Correlations and Spreads Tell Us?," Post-Print halshs-00424468, HAL.
  6. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
  7. Leitao, Joao & Armada, Manuel Rocha & Ferreira, Joaaquim, 2012. "Corruption and Co-Movements in European Listed Sport Companies: Did Calciocaos really matter?," MPRA Paper 42474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Anna Ilyina, 2005. "Investment Restrictions and Contagion in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/190, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Irina Bunda & A. Javier Hamann & Subir Lall, 2005. "Comovements In Emerging Market Bond Returns: An Empirical Assessment," Post-Print halshs-00424466, HAL.
  10. A. Javier Hamann & Irina Bunda & Subir Lall, 2010. "Correlations in Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 10/6, International Monetary Fund.

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