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Simple monetary rules under fiscal dominance

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  • Michael Kumhof
  • Ricardo Nunes
  • Irina Yakadina

Abstract

This paper asks whether an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation is feasible in countries that suffer from fiscal dominance, as long as monetary policy also responds to fiscal variables. We find that if nominal interest rates are allowed to respond to government debt, even aggressive rules that satisfy the Taylor principle can produce unique equilibria. But following such rules results in extremely volatile inflation. This leads to very frequent violations of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates that make such rules infeasible. Even within the set of feasible rules the optimal response to inflation is highly negative, and more aggressive inflation fighting is inferior from a welfare point of view. The welfare gain from responding to fiscal variables is minimal compared to the gain from eliminating fiscal dominance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 937.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:937

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Keywords: Fiscal policy ; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," NBER Working Papers 6646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Albert Marcet & Albert Scott, 2007. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," Working Papers 332, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Michael Kumhof & Shujing Li & Isabel Yan, . "Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 00020, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  4. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Betty Daniel, 2000. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0535, Econometric Society.
  6. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745 Elsevier.
  7. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
  9. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "Accuracy of stochastic perturbation methods: The case of asset pricing models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 979-999, June.
  10. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
  11. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, 09.
  12. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Optimal inflation targeting under alternative fiscal regimes," Discussion Papers 0506-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  13. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  14. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 519-546.
  15. John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with no Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 7498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-230, February.
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  19. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
  20. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Danciulescu, Cristina, 2014. "Macroeconomic equilibrium and welfare under simple monetary and switching fiscal policy rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 58-68.
  2. Shabbir, Safia, 2012. "Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 41496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.

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