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Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries

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  • Joseph E. Gagnon

Abstract

This paper examines episodes of sudden large exchange rate depreciations (currency crashes) in industrial countries and characterizes the behavior of government bond yields during and after these crashes. The most important determinant of changes in bond yields appears to be inflationary expectations. When inflation is high and rising at the time of a currency crash, bond yields tend to rise. Otherwise--and in every currency crash since 1985--bond yields tend to fall. Over the past 20 years, inflation rates have been remarkably stable in industrial countries after currency crashes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 837.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:837

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Keywords: Balance of payments ; Inflation (Finance) ; Foreign exchange rates;

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References

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  1. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H. & Rose, Andrew K., 2003. "Empirical exchange rate models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-2, May.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 315-338.
  4. M M Tudela, 2001. "Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach," CEP Discussion Papers dp0487, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Hilary Croke & Steven B. Kamin & Sylvain Leduc, 2005. "Financial market developments and economic activity during current account adjustments in industrial economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 827, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kent Osband & Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000. "Safety from Currency Crashes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 4.
  13. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2008. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 229-243.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 06/170, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "The Blind Men and the Elephant," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(53-54), pages 25-57, January -.
  3. David Hargreaves & Elizabeth Watson, 2011. "Sudden stops, external debt and the exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 1-11, December.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?," NBER Working Papers 11669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carol C. Bertaut & Steven B. Kamin & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "How long can the unsustainable U.S. current account deficit be sustained?," International Finance Discussion Papers 935, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?," NBER Working Papers 12451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Commentary : the end of large current account deficits : 1970-2002 : are there lessons for the United States?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 269-276.
  8. Mehl, Arnaud & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2007. "Uncovered interest parity at distant horizons: evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 0801, European Central Bank.

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