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A nonlinear econometric analysis of capital flight

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Author Info
Lisa M. Schineller
Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of globalization on productivity growth and the procyclicality of productivity growth in manufacturing industries in the United States and Germany. For U.S. industries, the analysis suggests that changes in international demand affect productivity growth differently from changes in exposure to international competition. An increase in foreign demand for U.S. exports raises trend productivity growth, but to a lesser degree than does a similar demand shock from domestic buyers. On the other hand, whereas an increase in U.S. imports reduces trend productivity growth of U.S. industries, a loss of market share to imports is associated with gains to productivity growth. For Germany, neither international demand shocks nor exposure to international competition seem to be associated with productivity growth rates, perhaps because German industries experienced a smaller increase in exposure to international competition over the time period. Comparing the U.S. and German results suggests that "going global" may affect productivity growth rates more than simply "being global." As for the procyclical characteristics of productivity growth, the U.S. and German measures evidence different procyclical behavior. For many industries, both U.S. and German labor productivity growth rates exhibit some degree of procyclicality. For German industries, this procyclicality of productivity growth disappears with broader measures of productivity growth that include utilization of capital and intermediate inputs. For U.S. industries, the degree of procyclicality increases when productivity growth is measured on these broader bases. Moreover, in the United States, procyclicality appears to be accentuated by export demand growth and dampened by import demand growth.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 594.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:594

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Keywords: Capital movements ; Econometric models;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phylaktis, Kate, 1991. "The black market for dollars in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 155-172, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1979. "The Estimation of a Simultaneous-Equation Tobit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 169-81, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fishelson, Gideon, 1988. "The black market for foreign exchange : An international comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 67-71. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Hajivassiliou, V. A., 1989. "Do the secondary markets believe in life after debt?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 252, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A., 1986. "Errors in variables in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 93-118, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, et al, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Some Thoughts on the Role of Fiscal Policy in Stabilization and Structural Adjustment in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 260, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Meenakshi Rishi & Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions, and Instability," IMF Working Papers 05/199, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Beja, Jr., Edsel, 2007. "Capital Flight and Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 4885, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
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