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On risk, rational expectations, and efficient asset markets

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Author Info
Guy V.G. Stevens
Dara Akbarian

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Abstract

The notion of asset market efficiency -- that market prices "fully reflect" all available information -- requires the operation of mechanisms that rapidly incorporate new information into asset prices. Particularly problematic -- both theoretically and empirically -- has been the case where new information is not widely shared, so-called "strong-form" efficiency. This paper examines the relevance of a mechanism for attaining strong-form efficiency based on knowledgeable investors being willing to take large positions in order to eliminate unexploited profit opportunities. We examine theoretically and empirically, the latter using daily stock market data, the impact of a number of factors on the efficacy of this mechanism: the portfolio size and degree of risk aversion of potential investors, the ability to borrow, and the hedging opportunities provided by the stock market.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 478.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:478

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Related research
Keywords: Rational expectations (Economic theory) ; Risk ; Information theory ; Stock market;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-36, May/June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baesel, Jerome B. & Stein, Garry R., 1979. "The Value of Information: Inferences from the Profitability of Insider Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 553-571, September. [Downloadable!]
  5. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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