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Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?

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Abstract

In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better anchored over the past decade in all three countries, as a testament to the improved credibility of the central banks in these countries when it comes to keeping inflation low. That said, one-year inflation compensation in the far future displays some sensitivity to at least one macroeconomic data release per country. However, the impact of these releases is small and it does not appear that investors systematically alter their expectations for inflation as a result of surprises in monetary policy, consumer prices, or real activity variables. Finally, long-run inflation expectations in Brazil appear to have been less well anchored than in Chile and Mexico.

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  • Michiel De Pooter & Patrice T. Robitaille & Ian Walker & Michael Zdinak, 2014. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1098, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1098
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; survey expectations; inflation compensation; Nelson-Siegel model; macro news suprises; Brazil; Chile; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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