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Where are global and U.S. trade heading in the aftermath of the trade collapse: issues and alternative scenarios

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Author Info

  • Joseph W. Gruber
  • Filippo di Mauro
  • Bernd Schnatz
  • Nico Zorell

Abstract

Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework – an error correction model – that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the relationship between trade and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that during the crisis both world trade and U.S. exports declined significantly more than would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships with economic activity. Moreover, this gap between actual and equilibrium trade is closing only slowly and could persist for some time to come.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1017.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1017

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Related research

Keywords: International trade ; Exports ; Global financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Jian Wang, 2010. "Durable goods and the collapse of global trade," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 5(feb).
  2. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
  3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," NBER Working Papers 16006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 2009. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 15142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram, 2008. "The real effect of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-112, January.
  7. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Working Papers 585, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time as a Trade Barrier," GTAP Working Papers 1152, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David E., 2009. "Exports and Financial Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," NBER Working Papers 13814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Farole, Thomas, 2009. "Trade finance in crisis : market adjustment or market failure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5003, The World Bank.
  13. Simeon Djankov & Caroline Freund & Cong S. Pham, 2010. "Trading on Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 166-173, February.
  14. Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2009. "Putting the Parts together," IMF Working Papers 09/181, International Monetary Fund.
  15. David Haugh & Annabelle Mourougane & Olivier Chatal, 2010. "The Automobile Industry in and Beyond the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 745, OECD Publishing.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
  18. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  20. Kee, Hiau Looi & Neagu, Cristina & Nicita, Alessandro, 2010. "Is protectionism on the rise ? assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5274, The World Bank.
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