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Credit-crunch dynamics with uninsured investment risk

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  • Jonathan E. Goldberg
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    Abstract

    I study the effects of credit tightening in an economy with uninsured idiosyncratic investment risk. In the model, entrepreneurs require an equity premium because collateral constraints limit insurance. After collateral constraints tighten, the equity premium and the riskiness of consumption rise and the risk-free interest rate falls. I show that, both immediately after the shock and in the long run, the equity premium and the riskiness of consumption increase more than they would if the risk-free rate were constant. Indeed, the long-run increase in the riskiness of consumption growth is purely a general-equilibrium effect: if the risk-free rate were constant (as in a small open economy), an endogenous decrease in risk-taking by entrepreneurs would, in the long run, completely offset the decrease in their ability to diversify. I also show that the credit shock leads to a decrease in aggregate capital if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is sufficiently high. Finally, I show that, due to a general-equilibrium effect, there is no "overshooting" in the equity premium: in response to a permanent decrease in firms' ability to pledge their future income, the equity premium immediately jumps to its new steady-state level and remains constant thereafter, even as aggregate capital adjusts over time. However, if idiosyncratic uncertainty is sufficiently low, credit tightening has no short- or long-run effects on aggregate capital, the equity premium, or the riskiness of consumption. Thus my paper highlights how investment risk affects the economy's response to a credit crunch.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2013-47.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-47

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    References

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    1. Marco Bassetto & Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2013. "Credit crunches and credit allocation in a model of entrepreneurship," Working Paper Series WP-2013-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2014. "Finance and Misallocation: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 422-58, February.
    4. George-Marios Angeletos, 2007. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Investment Risk and Aggregate Saving," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri, 2011. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings and the Liquidity Trap," 2011 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2010. "Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 16400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Francisco Covas, 2005. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk With Borrowing Constraints," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 198, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Benjamin Moll, 2012. "Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch," NBER Working Papers 17775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Vasia Panousi & George-Marios Angeletos, 2010. "Financial integration, entrepreneurial risk and global dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    11. Angeletos, George-Marios & Panousi, Vasia, 2009. "Revisiting the supply side effects of government spending," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 137-153, March.
    12. Adriano A. Rampini & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Collateral, Risk Management, and the Distribution of Debt Capacity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2293-2322, December.
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