Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy

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Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy

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Michael T. Kiley

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Michael T Kiley

Abstract

Inflation expectations play a central role in models of the Phillips curve. At long time horizons inflation expectations may reflect the credibility of a monetary authority's commitment to price stability. These observations highlight the importance of inflation expectations for monetary policy. These comments touch on three issues regarding inflation expectations: The evolving treatment of inflation expectations in empirical Phillips curve models; three recent models of information imperfections and inflation expectations; and potential policy implications of different models.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2009-15.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2009-15

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NEP-ALL-2009-07-11 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2009-07-11 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2009-07-11 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2009-07-11 (Monetary Economics)

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Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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