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Rational seasonality

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  • Travis D. Nesmith

Abstract

Seasonal adjustment usually relies on statistical models of seasonality that treat seasonal fluctuations as noise corrupting the `true' data. But seasonality in economic series often stems from economic behavior such as Christmas-time spending. Such economic seasonality invalidates the separability assumptions that justify the construction of aggregate economic indexes. To solve this problem, Diewert(1980,1983,1998,1999) incorporates seasonal behavior into aggregation theory. Using duality theory, I extend these results to a larger class of decision problems. I also relax Diewert's assumption of homotheticity. I provide support for Diewert's preferred seasonally-adjusted economic index using weak separability assumptions that are shown to be sufficient.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2007-04.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-04

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Related research

Keywords: Seasonal variations (Economics) ; Consumer behavior;

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References

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  1. Diewert, W. Erwin, . "Axiomatic and Economic Approaches to International Comparisons," Old UBC Departmental Papers 9611, UBC Department of Economics.
  2. Diewert, W.E., 1996. "Seasonal Commodities, High Inflation and Index Number Theory," UBC Departmental Archives 96-06, UBC Department of Economics.
  3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:48-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  5. David M. Grether & Marc Nerlove, 1968. "Some Properties of 'Optimal' Seasonal Adjustment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 261, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pollak, Robert A, 1975. "Subindexes in the Cost of Living Index," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 135-50, February.
  8. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Diewert, W. Erwin, 1999. "Index Number Approaches To Seasonal Adjustment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 48-68, March.
  10. Michael C. Lovell, 1963. "Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 151, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Sato, Kazuo, 1976. "The Ideal Log-Change Index Number," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(2), pages 223-28, May.
  12. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
  13. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  14. W. Erwin Diewert, 1980. "Aggregation Problems in the Measurement of Capital," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Capital, pages 433-538 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
  16. Diewert, W Erwin, 1978. "Superlative Index Numbers and Consistency in Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 883-900, July.
  17. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Travis Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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