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Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets

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Author Info
Jean Helwege
Nellie Liang
Abstract

The literature on IPOs offers a wide variety of explanations to justify the dramatic swings in the volume of IPOs observed in the market. Many theories predict that hot IPO markets are characterized by clusters of firms in particular industries for which a technological innovation has occurred, suggesting that hot and cold market IPO firms will differ in quality, prospects, or types of business. Others suggest hot market IPOs are firms that take advantage of irrational investors. We compare firms that go public in a number of hot and cold markets during 1975- 2000, examining them at the time of the IPO and during the following five years. We find that both hot and cold market IPOs are largely concentrated in the same narrow set of industries and hot markets for many industries occur at the same time. We also find few distinctions in quality and scant evidence that hot market IPOs have better growth prospects. Our results suggest that technological innovations are not the primary determinant of hot markets because IPO markets cycle with greater frequency than the underlying innovations, and are more in line with the view that hot markets reflect greater investor optimism, though not necessarily active manipulation by managers.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-04.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-04

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Keywords: Markets;

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  1. Chemmanur, Thomas J & Fulghieri, Paolo, 1999. "A Theory of the Going-Public Decision," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 249-79.
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  3. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. " Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
  6. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. " Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Schultz, Paul & Zaman, Mir, 2001. "Do the individuals closest to internet firms believe they are overvalued," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 347-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Maksimovic, Vojislav & Pichler, Pegaret, 2001. "Technological Innovation and Initial Public Offerings," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 459-94.
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  12. Stoughton, Neal M & Wong, Kit Pong & Zechner, Josef, 2001. "IPOs and Product Quality," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 375-408, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bayless, Mark & Chaplinsky, Susan, 1996. " Is There a Window of Opportunity for Seasoned Equity Issuance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 253-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Busaba, Walid Y. & Wilhelm, William Jr., 2002. "Information Externalities and the Role of Underwriters in Primary Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 61-86, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Laurie Krigman & Wayne H. Shaw & Kent L. Womack, 1999. "The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1015-1044, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kathleen M. Kahle & Ralph A. Walkling, . "The Impact of Industry Classifications on Financial Research," Research in Financial Economics 9607, Ohio State University. [Downloadable!]
  22. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Korajczyk, Robert A & Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1991. "The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 685-708. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Zingales, Luigi, 1995. "Insider Ownership and the Decision to Go Public," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(3), pages 425-48, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1994. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 2(2-3), pages 165-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Mello, Antonio S. & Parsons, John E., 1998. "Going public and the ownership structure of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 79-109, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "The Going-Public Decision and the Development of Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1045-1082, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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