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Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices

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Author Info
Antulio N. Bomfim
Vincent R. Reinhart

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Abstract

As recently as early 1994, market participants had to infer the stance of U.S. monetary policy according to the type and size of the open market operations conducted by the Federal Reserve's Trading Desk. Thus, investors were exposed to uncertainty about both the timing and the motivation for monetary policy actions. Since then, changes in disclosure practices regarding monetary policy decisions have potentially mitigated both types of uncertainty. We examine the effects of the greater openness and transparency of these new practices on the way a wide array of financial market instruments respond to unanticipated policy decisions. In general, the financial markets' response to policy does not seem to be related to what the Federal Reserve says after a surprise decision is announced or to when it decides to act. The invariance of the response of asset prices to policy across time and announcement regimes suggests that what the Federal Reserve says when it acts is of second-order importance to the act itself.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2000-14.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-14

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Financial markets ; Open market operations;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael J. Dueker, 1992. "The response of market interest rates to discount rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 78-91. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  11. Daniel L. Thornton, 1982. "The discount rate and market interest rates: what's the connection?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Michael T. Belongia & Kevin L. Kliesen, 1994. "EFFECTS ON INTEREST RATES OF IMMEDIATELY RELEASING FOMC DIRECTIVES," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 79-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeff Moore & Richard Austin, 2002. "The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 45-61. [Downloadable!]
  3. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249–265. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Banco de España Working Papers 0229, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2000. "Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP00-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joe Lange & Brian Sack & William Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Adam S. Posen, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 119-126. [Downloadable!]
  12. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2000. "Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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