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Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy

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  • Michael T. Kiley

Abstract

This paper compares the predictions for the market value of firms from the Gordon growth model with those from a dynamic general equilibrium model of production. The predictions for movements in the market value of firms in response to a decline in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy are quantitatively and qualitatively different across the models. While previous research has illustrated how a drop in the required return or an increase in the growth rate of the economy can explain the runup in equity values in the 1990s in the Gordon growth model, the consideration of production overturns these results and illustrates that auxiliary implications of such shifts in fundamentals, such as a sharp increase in the investment intensity of the economy, are not supported by the data in the late 1990s. This tension between theory and data suggests that the skyrocketing market value of firms in the second half of the 1990s may reflect a degree of irrational exuberance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2000-05.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-05

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Related research

Keywords: Stock market ; Stock - Prices ; Production (Economic theory) ; Investments;

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References

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  1. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
  3. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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Cited by:
  1. Carl D. Lantz & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2001. "Consumption, savings, and the meaning of the wealth effect in general equilibrium," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-71.
  2. Jason G. Cummins, 2005. "A New Approach to the Valuation of Intangible Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 47-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  4. Pierre Lafourcade, 2003. "Asset prices and rents in a GE model with imperfect competition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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