IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/2014-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Galina Hale
  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members had an effect on both sets of countries. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. The result has been asset-price bubbles and collapses in some of the peripheral countries, area-wide banking crisis, and sovereign debt problems. We analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro?s introduction, Core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery.

Suggested Citation

  • Galina Hale & Maurice Obstfeld, 2014. "The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows," Working Paper Series 2014-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2014-10
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2014-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2014-10.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2014-10?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S Güürkaynak & Eric T Swanson, 2011. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 350-364, February.
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Philippe Martin, 2009. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nuno Cassola & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2013. "The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short‐Term Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1309-1345, July.
    5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    6. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
    7. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Pels, 2010. "International Asset Holdings and the Euro," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp331, IIIS.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    11. Ms. Ruo Chen & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Thierry Tressel, 2012. "External Imbalances in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2012/236, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    13. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    14. Gabriel Zucman, 2013. "The Missing Wealth of Nations: Are Europe and the U.S. net Debtors or net Creditors?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1321-1364.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Di Mauro,Filippo & Anderton,Robert (ed.), 2007. "The External Dimension of the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521867009.
    17. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    18. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    19. repec:pri:cepsud:237b%20shin is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Filippo Brutti & Philip U. Sauré, 2014. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis: Evidence for the Secondary Market Theory," Working Papers 2014-03, Swiss National Bank.
    21. Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 114-130, June.
    22. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2013. "Finance at Center Stage: Some Lessons of the Euro Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Sven Blank & Claudia M Buch, 2007. "The Euro and Cross-Border Banking: Evidence from Bilateral Data," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 389-410, September.
    24. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    25. Buiter, Willem & Sibert, Anne, 2005. "How the Eurosystem?s Treatment of Collateral in its Open Market Operations Weakens Fiscal Discipline in the Eurozone (and what," CEPR Discussion Papers 5387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 751-776, September.
    27. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    28. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    29. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, 2013. "Banks’ Foreign Credit Exposures and Borrowers’ Rollover Risks Measurement, Evolution and Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2013/009, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Alberto Felettigh & Paola Monti, 2008. "How to interpret the CPIS data on the distribution of foreign portfolio assets in the presence of sizeable cross-border positions in mutual funds. Evidence for Italy and the main euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 16, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    32. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    33. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Roland & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "The geography of the great rebalancing in euro area bond markets during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 449-460.
    2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration? Currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-88, May.
    3. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure, 2015. "Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 354-373.
    4. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp272, IIIS.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27s0rlpcib9hhphbgsgctgbcj5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    7. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2016. "The resurgence of cultural borders during the financial crisis: The changing geography of Eurozone cross-border depositing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 12-26.
    8. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hale, Galina & Minoiu, Camelia, 2015. "Financial crises and the composition of cross-border lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-81.
    9. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2013. "The European Union, the Euro, and equity market integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 583-603.
    10. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Growth And Adjustment Challenges For The Euro Area," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295.
    12. Avdjiev, Stefan & Hale, Galina, 2019. "U.S. monetary policy and fluctuations of international bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 251-268.
    13. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Transaction patterns and gravity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 39-54.
    14. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "History, gravity and international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-129.
    15. Fabian J. Baier & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The UK’s banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 193-213, March.
    16. Kleimeier, S. & Sander, H. & Heuchemer, S., 2014. "The resurgence of cultural borders in international finance during the financial crisis: Evidence from Eurozone cross-border depositing," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Bouvatier, Vincent, 2014. "International Banking: the Isolation of the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
    19. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Assessing systemic risk and its determinants for advanced and major emerging economies: the case of ΔCoVaR," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 119-152, January.
    20. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem & Nguyen, Ha, 2016. "Euro currency risk and the geography of debt flows to peripheral EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international debt; EMU; international banking; global imbalances; euro crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2014-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.