Entry dynamics and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through
AbstractThe degree of exchange-rate pass-through to import prices is low. An average passthrough estimate for the 1980s would be roughly 50 percent for the United States implying that, following a 10 percent depreciation of the dollar, a foreign exporter selling to the U.S. market would raise its price in the United States by 5 percent. Moreover, substantial evidence indicates that the degree of pass-through has since declined to about 30 percent. ; Gust, Leduc, and Vigfusson (2010) demonstrate that, in the presence of pricing complementarity, trade integration spurred by lower costs for importers can account for a significant portion of the decline in pass-through. In our framework, pass-through declines solely because of markup adjustments along the intensive margin. ; In this paper, we model how the entry and exit decisions of exporting firms affect passthrough. This is particularly important since the decline in pass-through has occurred as a greater concentration of foreign firms are exporting to the United States. ; We find that the effect of entry on pass-through is quantitatively small and is more than offset by the adjustment of markups that arise only along the intensive margin. Even though entry has a relatively small impact on pass-through, it nevertheless plays an important role in accounting for the secular rise in imports relative to GDP. In particular, our model suggests that over 3/4 of the rise in the U.S. import share since the early 1980s is due to trade in new goods. ; Thus, a key insight of this paper is that adjustment of markups that occur along the intensive margin are quantitatively more important in accounting for secular changes in pass-through than adjustments that occur along the extensive margin.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2010-23.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert Vigfusson, 2010. "Entry dynamics and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 1008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-INT-2010-10-16 (International Trade)
- NEP-MON-2010-10-16 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-10-16 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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