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Financial globalization and monetary policy discipline

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  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

The literature appears to have reached a consensus that financial globalization has had a "disciplining effect" on monetary policy, as it has reduced the returns from--and hence the temptation for--using monetary policy to stabilize output. As a result, monetary policy over recent years has placed more emphasis on stabilizing inflation, resulting in reduced inflation and greater output stability. However, this consensus has not been accompanied by convincing empirical evidence that such a relationship exists. One reason is likely to be that de facto measures of financial globalization are endogenous, and that instruments for financial globalization are elusive. In this paper, I introduce a new instrument, financial remoteness, as a plausibly exogenous instrument for financial openness. I examine the relationship between financial globalization and median inflation levels over an 11 year cross-section from 1994 through 2004, as well as a panel of 5-year median inflation levels between 1980 and 2004. The results confirm a negative relationship between median inflation and financial globalization in the base specification, but this relationship is sensitive to the inclusion of conditioning variables or country fixed effects, precluding any strong inferences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-10.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-10

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Globalization;

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References

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  1. Hiroshi Fujiki & nd Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 06/189, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
  6. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2005. "Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?," Working Paper Series 2005-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2008. "International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
  9. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
  10. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
  11. Kose, Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," CEPR Discussion Papers 5842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  13. Sutherland, Alan, 2004. "International Monetary Policy Coordination and Financial Market Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2005. "Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 237-259, September.
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  16. Mark Spiegel, 2007. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov23.
  17. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  19. Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad & M. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Cited by:
  1. Dilip K. Das, 2010. "Financial globalization: a macroeconomic angle," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 307-325, December.
  2. L. Arturo Bernal Ponce & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2011. "Impacto de los productos derivados los objetivos de política monetaria: un modelo de equilibrio general," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 26(2), pages 187-216.

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