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Financial globalization and monetary policy discipline

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Author Info
Mark M. Spiegel

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Abstract

The literature appears to have reached a consensus that financial globalization has had a "disciplining effect" on monetary policy, as it has reduced the returns from--and hence the temptation for--using monetary policy to stabilize output. As a result, monetary policy over recent years has placed more emphasis on stabilizing inflation, resulting in reduced inflation and greater output stability. However, this consensus has not been accompanied by convincing empirical evidence that such a relationship exists. One reason is likely to be that de facto measures of financial globalization are endogenous, and that instruments for financial globalization are elusive. In this paper, I introduce a new instrument, financial remoteness, as a plausibly exogenous instrument for financial openness. I examine the relationship between financial globalization and median inflation levels over an 11 year cross-section from 1994 through 2004, as well as a panel of 5-year median inflation levels between 1980 and 2004. The results confirm a negative relationship between median inflation and financial globalization in the base specification, but this relationship is sensitive to the inclusion of conditioning variables or country fixed effects, precluding any strong inferences.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-10.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-10

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Globalization;

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  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. AndrewK. Rose & MarkM. Spiegel, 2007. "Offshore Financial Centres: Parasites or Symbionts?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1310-1335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hiroshi Fujiki & nd Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2008. "International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1026, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kenneth Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mark Spiegel, 2007. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov 23. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Sutherland, Alan, 2004. "International Monetary Policy Coordination and Financial Market Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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