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Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution

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Author Info
Mardi Dungey
Diana Zhumabekova

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Abstract

Tests for contagion in financial returns using correlation analysis are seriously affected by the size of the “noncrisis” and “crisis” periods. Typically the crisis period contains relatively few observations, which seriously affects the power of the test.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 01-09.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:01-09

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Financial markets;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Nicola Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 359-367. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Diana Zhumabekova & Mardi Dungey, 2001. "Factor analysis of a model of stock market returns using simulation-based estimation techniques," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sarai Criado Nuevo, . "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark Mink & Jochen Mierau, 2009. "Measuring Stock Market Contagion with an Application to the Sub-prime Crisis," DNB Working Papers 217, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Daryl Collins & Shãna Gavron, 2005. "Measuring equity market contagion in multiple financial events," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 531-538, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. gulielmo maria caporale & rea cipollini & nicola spagnolo, 2004. "Testing For Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis," International Finance 0406003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian Lucey, 2006. "Financial Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp114, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

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