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Model uncertainty, robust policies, and the value of commitment

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Kenneth Kasa

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Abstract

Using results from the literature on H-control, this paper incorporates model uncertainty into Whiteman's (1986) frequency domain approach to stabilization policy. The derived policies guarantee a minimum performance level even in the worst of (a bounded set of) circumstances. ; For a given level of model uncertainty, robust H- policies are shown to be more 'activist' than Whiteman's H- policies in the sense that their impulse responses are larger. Robust policies also tend to be more autocorrelated. Consequently, the premium associated with being able to commit is greater under model uncertainty. Without commitment, the policymaker isn't able to (credibly) smooth his response to the degree that he would like. ; From a technical standpoint, a contribution of this paper is its analysis of robust control in a model featuring a forward-looking state transition equation, which arises from the fact that the private sector bases its decisions on expectations of future government policy. Existing applications of H- control in economics follow the engineering literature, and only consider backward-looking state transition equations. It is the forward-looking nature of the state transition equation that makes a frequency domain approach attractive.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 99-14.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:99-14

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Keywords: Econometric models Programming (Mathematics)

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  1. Stokey, Nancy L., 1991. "Credible public policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kasa, Kenneth, 1998. "Optimal policy with limited commitment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 887-910, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 107-164. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Whiteman, Charles H, 1986. "An Analytical Policy Design under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1387-1405, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Prescott, Edward C., 1977. "Should control theory be used for economic stabilization?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Taylor, John B, 1975. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(5), pages 1009-21, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Roberds, William, 1987. "Models of Policy under Stochastic Replanning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 731-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. repec:att:wimass:1920422 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Robust-H_infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies (December 2001)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 237, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium," Working Paper Series 808, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. A. Hakan Kara, 2002. "Robust Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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