Accounting for the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing
Abstract
The share of employment in manufacturing as well as the relative price of manufactures has declined sharply over the postwar period, while the share of manufacturing output relative to GDP has remained roughly constant. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in reconciling this behavior with a closed-economy, two-sector model with differential rates of productivity growth. We show that the data imply that households are not willing to substitute between the two goods at all and also that this inference is independent of whatever the income elasticity of demand for services might be. Because we are unable to account for the entire decline in employment over this period, we expand the model to allow for manufactured exports. While this does not change our estimate of the elasticity of substitution, it does improve the modelâs ability to explain the decline in relative employment in the 1990s. However, larger errors in the 1970s remain unexplained.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2005-18.
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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2005-18
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Related research
Keywords: Manufactures ; Employment ; Productivity ; Economic conditions - United States;Other versions of this item:
- Bharat Trehan & Milton Marquis, 2005. "Accounting for the Secular "Decline" of U.S. Manufacturing," 2005 Meeting Papers 455, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2005-11-05 (Business Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007.
"Input and output inventories in general equilibrium,"
Working Papers
07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2010. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," International Finance Discussion Papers 1004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 658, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
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