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Specifying and estimating New Keynesian models with instrument rules and optimal monetary policies

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Author Info
Richard Dennis

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Abstract

This paper estimates several popular sticky-price New Keynesian models in an effort to understand whether and under what circumstances these models can usefully describe observed outcomes. We estimate and compare specifications that contain different forms of habit formation, specifications that have either the gap or real marginal costs driving inflation, and specifications that use either optimal policymaking or a forward-looking Taylor-type rule to summarize monetary policy. Among other results, we find that the different forms of habit formation lead to very similar aggregate behavior, that optimal policymaking explains the data as well as a Taylor-type rule does, and that the data speak strongly against specifications that have real marginal costs as the driver in the Phillips curve.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2004-17.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2004-17

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Keywords: Monetary policy Keynesian economics Econometric models

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2003. "Can rational expectations sticky-price models explain inflation dynamics?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ball, Laurence, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul McNelis & John Duffy, 1998. "Approximating and Simulating the Stochastic Growth Model: Parameterized Expectations, Neural Networks, and the Genetic Algorithm," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804004, EconWPA, revised 04 May 1998. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
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  11. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  14. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2004. "Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 105-126, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 439-461.
  17. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jeff Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy In A Model With Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 306, Society for Computational Economics.
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  19. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "A small, structural, quarterly model for monetary policy evaluation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 83-108, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Richard Dennis, 2003. "Inferring policy objectives from economic outcomes," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  22. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "What Is Left of the Multiplier Accelerator?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 150-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 3621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2004. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 305-325, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dennis, Richard & Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2007. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Crosby & Tim Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2006. "How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  3. Männistö , Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markets with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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