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Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring

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Author Info
John Krainer
Jose A. Lopez

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Abstract

Bank supervisors in the United States conduct comprehensive on-site inspections of bank holding companies (BHCs) and assign them a supervisory rating meant to summarize their overall condition. We develop an empirical forecasting model of these ratings that combines supervisory and securities market data. We find that securities market variables, such as BHC stock returns and bond yield spreads, improve the model’s in-sample fit. We also find that debt market variables provide more information on supervisory ratings for BHCs closer to default, while equity market variables provide more information for those further from default. In out-of sample forecasting, we find that the accuracy of the model with both equity and debt variables is little different from the accuracy of a model based on supervisory information alone. However, the model with securities market data identifies additional ratings downgrades, which supervisors would probably value enough to warrant the use of this extended model for off-site monitoring purposes.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2004-05.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2004-05

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Keywords: Bank supervision Stock market Bond market Securities

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," Working Paper Series WP-01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. " Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lisa M. DeFerrari & David E. Palmer, 2001. "Supervision of large complex banking organizations," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 47-57. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Goyal, Vidhan K., 2005. "Market discipline of bank risk: Evidence from subordinated debt contracts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 318-350, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  10. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Wall, Larry D., 2002. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 989-1009, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 076, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pettway, Richard H, 1976. "Market Tests of Capital Adequacy of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 865-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. " Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mark J. Flannery & Simon H. Kwan & M. Nimalendran, 1997. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 470-485.
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  18. Daniel M. Covitz & Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Market discipline in banking reconsidered: the roles of deposit insurance reform, funding manager decisions and bond market liquidity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Using subordinated debt to monitor bank holding companies: is it feasible?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, . "Market and Supervisory Information: Some Evidence from Italian Banks," Discussion Papers 04/04, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  23. Beverly J. Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  24. Krainer, John & Lopez, Jose A, 2004. "Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1043-67, December.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olivier BROSSARD (LEREPS-GRES ) & Frédéric DUCROZET (PSE - Crédit Agricole) & Adrian ROCHE (EconomiX - Crédit Agricole), 2007. "An Early Warning Model for EU banks with Detection of the Adverse Selection Effect," Working Papers of GRES - Cahiers du GRES 2007-08, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales. [Downloadable!]
  2. Greg Caldwell, 2007. "Best Instruments for Market Discipline in Banking," Working Papers 07-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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