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New Keynesian optimal-policy models: an empirical assessment

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Author Info
Richard Dennis

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Abstract

This paper estimates two optimization-based sticky-price New Keynesian models and assesses how well they describe U.S. output, inflation, and interest rate dynamics. We consider models in which either internal habit formation influence consumption behavior, and in which Calvo-pricing and inflation indexation generate price and inflation inertia. Subject to constraints dictated by household and firm behavior, monetary policy is set under discretion and the model's time-consistent equilibrium is employed to estimate key behavioral parameters. We find that specifications estimated on consumption data perform better than specifications estimated on output data and that models with external habit formation out-perform models with internal habit formation. Nevertheless, even the best fitting specification displays characteristics that are inconsistent with the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2003-16.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2003-16

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Econometric models ; Keynesian economics;

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  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carl Walsh, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives," Research and Policy Notes 2007/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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