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Nonlinearities in international business cycles

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Author Info
Diego Valderrama

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Abstract

This paper documents the dynamic properties of national output, its components, and the current account for five OECD countries. There is strong evidence of conditional volatility for almost all time series as well as significant deviations from normality. The deviations are detected particularly in GDP, net exports, investment time series.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2002-23.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2002-23

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometric models;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gallant, A.R. & Tauchen, G., 1988. "Seminonparametric Estimation Of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Papers 88-59, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
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  8. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ashley, Richard A & Patterson, Douglas M, 1989. "Linear versus Nonlinear Macroeconomies: A Statistical Test," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-704, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Altu[gbreve], Sumru & Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1999. "Are Technology Shocks Nonlinear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 506-533, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hess, Gregory D. & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 535-554, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "SNP: A Program for Nonparametric Time Series Analysis. Version 8.4. User's Guide," Working Papers 95-26, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: a challenge for the canonical RBC model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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