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The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit

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Diego Valderrama

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Abstract

The evidence of the last 20 years of recurring output busts and rapid reversals of the current account in emerging markets indicates that domestic agents may not be able to borrow in international capital markets to fully insure themselves against internal and external shocks. This paper models this phenomenon as a form of excess volatility by introducing a financial friction into a stochastic model of a small open economy. The financial friction limits the current account deficit to a fixed fraction of gross domestic product. The paper shows that conditional volatility and asymmetry are significant statistical characteristics of the GDP and current account that reflect the excess volatility and the current account reversals. The economic model can explain the conditional volatility and asymmetry of Mexican GDP and the current account.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2002-15.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2002-15

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Keywords: Developing countries Econometric models Capital

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Smith, R. Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 327-351, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  6. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Efficient Method of Moments," Working Papers 02-06, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & FARHAT, Abdeljelil & GARDIOL, Lucien, 1998. "Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Normality Tests in Linear Regressions," Cahiers de recherche 9811, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "SNP: A Program for Nonparametric Time Series Analysis. Version 8.4. User's Guide," Working Papers 95-26, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: a challenge for the canonical RBC model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: round up the usual suspects," International Finance Discussion Papers 760, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2004. "Putting the Brakes on Sudden Stops: The Financial Frictions-Moral Hazard Tradeoff of Asset Price Guarantees," NBER Working Papers 10790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops?: A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  7. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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