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Quantifying embodied technological change

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Author Info
Plutarchos Sakellaris
Daniel J. Wilson

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Abstract

We estimate the rate of embodied technological change directly from plant-level manufacturing data on current output and input choices along with histories on their vintages of equipment investment. Our estimates range between 8 and 17 percent for the typical U.S. manufacturing plant during the years 1972-1996. Any number in this range is substantially larger than is conventionally accepted with some important implications. First, the role of investment-specific technological change as an engine of growth is even larger than previously estimated. Second, existing producer durable price indices do not adequately account for quality change. As a result, measured capital stock growth is biased. Third, if accurate, the Hulten and Wykoff (1981) economic depreciation rates may primarily reflect obsolescence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2001-16.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7, no. 1 , January 2004, Pages 1-26
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2001-16

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Keywords: Technology ; Productivity;

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  2. Martin Neil Baily & Eric J. Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger, 2001. "Labor Productivity: Structural Change And Cyclical Dynamics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 420-433, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bartelsman, Eric J & Caballero, Ricardo J & Lyons, Richard K, 1994. "Customer- and Supplier-Driven Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1075-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Richard McHugh & Julia Lane, 1986. "The age of capital, the age of utilized capital, and tests of the embodiment hypothesis," Working Papers 86-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  6. Hulten, Charles R, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change Is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 964-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Accounting for Growth," NBER Working Papers 6647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 2000. "Accounting for Growth," RCER Working Papers 475, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    • Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "Accounting for Growth," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 179-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 1999. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," International Finance Discussion Papers 638, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital utilization and returns to scale," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  10. G. Steven Olley & Ariel Pakes, 1992. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," NBER Working Papers 3977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1998. "The Role of Investment-Specific Technological Change in the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 449, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  13. Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Timothy Dunne, 1991. "Technology Usage in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: New Evidence from the Survey of Manufacturing Technology," Working Papers 91-7, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, September.
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  24. Gort, Michael & Wall, Richard A., 1998. "Obsolescence, input augmentation, and growth accounting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1653-1665, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Boyan Jovanovic & Rafael Rob, 1997. "Solow vs. Solow: Machine Prices and Development," NBER Working Papers 5871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2001. "Patterns of plant adjustment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  29. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  30. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932.
  32. Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2000. "Patterns of Plant Adjustment," Electronic Working Papers 00-001, University of Maryland, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. TOKUI Joji & INUI Tomohiko & Young Gak KIM, 2008. "Embodied Technological Progress and the Productivity Slowdown in Japan," Discussion papers 08017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Cornelia Holthausen & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2002. "Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems," Working Paper Series 184, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Daniel Wilson, 2003. "Embodying Embodiment in a Structural, Macroeconomic Input-Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 371-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel J. Wilson, 2002. "Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 285-317, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2009. "The Quality of Medical Care, Behavioral Risk Factors, and Longevity Growth," NBER Working Papers 15068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2002. "From the ERM to the Euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 176, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2008. "Investment-Specific Technological Change, Investment Sectoral Allocation and Human Capital Accumulation in a Model of Export-Led Growth," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211332520, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2009. "Have newer cardiovascular drugs reduced hospitalization? Evidence from longitudinal country-level data on 20 OECD countries, 1995-2003," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 519-534. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Frank R. Lichtenberg & Gautier Duflos, 2008. "Pharmaceutical innovation and the longevity of Australians: a first look," NBER Working Papers 14009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Shishir Saxena, 2007. "Technology And Spillovers: Evidence From Indian Manufacturing Micro-Data," Monash Economics Working Papers 27/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nicole Jonker, 2002. "Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models," Working Paper Series 172, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Chia-Hung Sun, 2006. "Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 341-359, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Savvidou, Eleni, 2003. "The Relationship Between Skilled Labor and Technical Change," Working Paper Series 2003:27, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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