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Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models

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Author Info
John Krainer
Jose A. Lopez

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Abstract

We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to bank supervisors for assessing the condition of bank holding companies. Using an event study framework, we find that equity market variables anticipate supervisory ratings changes by up to four quarters and that the improvements in forecast accuracy arising from conditioning on equity market information are statistically significant. We develop an off-site monitoring model that easily combines supervisory and equity market information, and we find that the model's forecasts also anticipate supervisory ratings changes by several quarters. While the inclusion of equity market variables in the model does not improve forecast accuracy by much relative to simply using supervisory variables, we conclude that equity market information is useful for forecasting supervisory ratings and should be incorporated into supervisory monitoring models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2001-14.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2001-14

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Keywords: Stocks ; Bank supervision;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Linda Allen & Julapa Jagtiani & James Moser, 2001. "Further Evidence on the Information Content of Bank Examination Ratings: A Study of BHC-to-FHC Conversion Applications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 213-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
  15. Gary H. Stern, 2001. "Taking market data seriously," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sep, pages 8-10.
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  18. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
  19. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt yield spreads as bank risk measures," Working Paper 2001-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Beverly J. Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Spiegel, Mark M. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2004. "Determinants of Voluntary Bank Disclosure: Evidence from Japanese Shinkin Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, 2005. "The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 139-162, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, . "Market and Supervisory Information: Some Evidence from Italian Banks," Discussion Papers 04/04, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Clemens J.M. Kool, 2007. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Klaus Düllmann & Agnieszka Sosinska, 2007. "Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 269-292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Working Paper 2001-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2003. "Subordinated debt and prompt corrective regulatory action," Working Paper Series WP-03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2003. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?," Working Papers 2003-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 135-175. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
  13. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2005. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices - Estonia Focus," Discussion Papers 185, University of Dundee, Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. John R. Hall & Thomas B. King & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  16. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward S. Prescott, 2006. "Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices," Working Paper 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  17. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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