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Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models

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Author Info
John Krainer
Jose A. Lopez

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Abstract

We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to bank supervisors for assessing the condition of bank holding companies. Using an event study framework, we find that equity market variables anticipate supervisory ratings changes by up to four quarters and that the improvements in forecast accuracy arising from conditioning on equity market information are statistically significant. We develop an off-site monitoring model that easily combines supervisory and equity market information, and we find that the model's forecasts also anticipate supervisory ratings changes by several quarters. While the inclusion of equity market variables in the model does not improve forecast accuracy by much relative to simply using supervisory variables, we conclude that equity market information is useful for forecasting supervisory ratings and should be incorporated into supervisory monitoring models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2001-14.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2001-14

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Keywords: Stocks Bank supervision

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Linda Allen & Julapa Jagtiani & James Moser, 2001. "Further Evidence on the Information Content of Bank Examination Ratings: A Study of BHC-to-FHC Conversion Applications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 213-232, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
  10. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mark J. Flannery & Simon H. Kwan & M. Nimalendran, 1997. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 470-485.
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  13. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
  14. Gary H. Stern, 2001. "Taking market data seriously," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sep, pages 8-10. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gordon Delianedis & Robert Geske, 1998. "Credit Risk and Risk Neutral Default Probabilities: Information About Migrations and Defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1114, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Timothy H. Hannan & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1986. "Bank insolvency risk and the market for large certificates of deposit," Working Papers in Banking, Finance and Microeconomics 86-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. Beverly J. Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2003. "Subordinated debt and prompt corrective regulatory action," Working Paper Series WP-03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2006. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  3. Spiegel, Mark M. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2004. "Determinants of Voluntary Bank Disclosure: Evidence from Japanese Shinkin Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, . "Market and Supervisory Information: Some Evidence from Italian Banks," Discussion Papers 04/04, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  5. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 135-175. [Downloadable!]
  6. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward S. Prescott, 2006. "Market-based regulation and the informational content of prices," Working Paper 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  8. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-08, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Using securities market information for bank supervisory monitoring," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Clemens J.M. Kool, 2007. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  11. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2001. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Working Paper 2001-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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