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Optimal policy in rational-expectations models: new solution algorithms

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Richard Dennis

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Abstract

This paper develops algorithms that solve for optimal discretionary and optimal pre-commitment policies in rational-expectations models. The techniques developed are simpler to apply than existing methods; they do not require identifying and separating predetermined variables from jump variables, and they eliminate many of the mathematical preliminaries that are required to implement existing methods. The techniques developed are applied to examples to assess the benefits of pre-commitment over discretion.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2001-09.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2001-09

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Keywords: Monetary policy Rational expectations (Economic theory)

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  5. Richard Dennis, 2000. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P. Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy," Working Paper 00-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  11. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  12. Mckibbin, W.J. & Sachs, J.D., 1989. "The Mckibbin-Sachs Global (Msg) Model," Papers 78, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  13. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Mckibbin, Warwick J. & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1988. "Comparing the global performance of alternative exchange arrangements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 387-410. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harald Uhlig, 1998. "A Toolkit for Analysing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily," QM&RBC Codes 123, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C., 1980. "Dynamic optimal taxation, rational expectations and optimal control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 79-91, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Krusell, Per & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1997. "Politico-economic equilibrium and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 243-272, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-28, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Richard Dennis, 2000. "Optimal simple targeting rules for small open economies," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  27. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model with Public Capital," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 337-364, May.
  30. Bennett T. McCallum, 1998. "Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models: A Compact Exposition," NBER Technical Working Papers 0232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Strasky, 2005. "Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, . "Methods for Robust Control," Working Papers 307, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dennis, Richard & Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2007. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew P Blake & Fabrizio Zampolli, . "Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents," Bank of England working papers 298, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard Dennis, 2007. "Model uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard Dennis & Federico Ravenna, 2007. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alfred V. Guender, 2007. "How Conservative Does the Central Banker Have to Be? On the Treatment of Expectations under Discretionary Policymaking," Working Papers in Economics 07/04, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alistair Dieppe & Keith Küster & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy rules for the euro area: an analysis using the area wide model," Working Paper Series 360, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Fabrizio Zampolli & Andrew Blake, 2005. "Time Consistent Policy in Markov Switching Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Richard Mash, 2003. "A Note on Simple MSV Solution Methods for Rational Expectations Models of Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard Dennis, 2001. "Pre-commitment, the timeless perspective, and policymaking from behind a veil of uncertainty," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  12. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "Can a Calibrated New-Keynesian Model of Monetary Policy Fit the Facts?," Working Paper Series 140, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  13. Scott Hendry & Wai-Ming Ho & Kevin Moran, 2003. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in an Open-Economy, Limited-Participation Model," Working Papers 03-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  14. Richard Dennis, 2002. "Exploring the role of the real exchange rate in Australian monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Robust control with commitment: a modification to Hansen-Sargent," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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