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Optimal simple targeting rules for small open economies

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  • Richard Dennis

Abstract

This paper solves for optimal policy rules in a stylized small open economy model under a spectrum of targeting regimes. These policy reaction functions are presented as feedback rules highlighting the dominant state variables in each rule. Optimal simple rules - rules that exploit a reduced information set - are explored to assess how much is lost when information is excluded from the optimal state-contingent rule. For the model analyzed we find that some optimal simple rules can approximate reasonably well the optimal state-contingent rule, these simple rules contain the real exchange rate. Knowing which variables underpin the performance of the optimal state-contingent rule is important for developing simple, robust, rules with good stabilizing properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2000-20.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2000-20

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Related research

Keywords: Econometric models ; Foreign exchange rates ; Inflation (Finance) ; Taylor's rule;

References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  2. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  3. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  4. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
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  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
  16. Richard Dennis, 2000. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  18. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  21. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  22. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-75, Supplemen.
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  24. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Richard Dennis, 2001. "Solving for Optimal Simple Rules in Rational Expectations Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 30, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.
  3. Martha Rosalba Lopezpiñeros, 2004. "Efficient Policy Rulefor Inflation Targeting Incolombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  4. Richard Dennis, 2001. "The policy preferences of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
  6. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy: Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 300, Econometric Society.
  7. 300, 2004. "Persistence and the Role of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Inertia in Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 300, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Dennis, Richard, 2007. "Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 31-55, February.
  9. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Martha López, 2006. "House Prices and Monetary Policy in Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  11. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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