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Term premia and interest rate forecasts in affine models

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Author Info
Gregory R. Duffee
Abstract

I find that the standard class of affine models produces poor forecasts of future changes in Treasury yields. Better forecasts are generated by assuming that yields follow random walks. The failure of these models is driven by one of their key features: the compensation that investors receive for facing risk is a multiple of the variance of the risk. This means that risk compensation cannot vary independently of interest rate volatility. I also describe and empirically estimate a class of models that is broader than the standard affine class. These 'essentially affine' models retain the tractability of the usual models, but allow the compensation for interest rate risk to vary independently of interest rate volatility. This additional flexibility proves useful in forming accurate forecasts of future yields.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 2000-19.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:2000-19

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Keywords: Government securities ; Econometric models ; Forecasting;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ravi Jagannathan & Andrew Kaplin & Steve Guoqiang Sun, 2001. "An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices," NBER Working Papers 8682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael M. Martin, 2003. "Simulation-Based Bayesian Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jun Liu & Francis Longstaff & Ravit Mandell, 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1076, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  4. C. Emre Alper & Aras Akdemir & Kazim Kazimov, 2004. "Estimating Yield Curves in Turkey: Factor Analysis Approach," Working Papers 2004/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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