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Argentina’s unimpressive recovery: insights from a real business cycle approach

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  • Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga

Abstract

Argentina’s GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce-back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina’s mediocre long-run growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business-Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002-05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a finding not consistent with upbeat views about the country’s long-run prospects.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0606.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0606

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  1. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga, 2004. "Argentina's capital gap puzzle," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0504, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
  3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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