Argentina’s unimpressive recovery: insights from a real business cycle approach
AbstractArgentina’s GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce-back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina’s mediocre long-run growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business-Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002-05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a finding not consistent with upbeat views about the country’s long-run prospects.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0606.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAM-2007-03-03 (Central & South America)
- NEP-MAC-2007-03-03 (Macroeconomics)
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