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Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?

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  • Kenneth M. Emery
  • Evan F. Koenig

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File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/1992/wp9214.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Research Paper with number 9214.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddrp:9214

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Research Paper 9201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Neftici, Salih N., 1982. "Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 225-241, November.
  3. King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1991. "Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-14.
  5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, octubre-d.
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Cited by:
  1. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
  2. Scott Freeman & Dong-Pyo Hong & Dan Peled, 1999. "Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 402-432, April.
  3. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
  4. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  5. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Francois, P. & Lloyd-Ellis, H., 2001. "Animal Spirits Meets Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2001-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
  8. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
  9. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
  10. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "Capacity utilization and the evolution of manufacturing output: a closer look at the "bounce-back effect."," Working Papers 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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