The effects of news about future productivity on international relative prices: an empirical investigation
AbstractIn this paper, we find that expected (news) and unexpected (contemporaneous) components of productivity changes have opposite effects on the U.S. real exchange rate. Following Barsky and Sims' (2010) identification method, we decompose US total factor productivity (TFP) into news and contemporaneous productivity changes. The US real exchange rate appreciates following a favorable news shock to TFP, while it depreciates in response to a positive contemporaneous shock. In addition, the identified news TFP shocks play a much more important role than the identified contemporaneous TFP shocks in driving the US real exchange rate. These findings provide empirical guidance to important international macroeconomic issues, such as the international transmission of productivity shocks and the modeling of exchange rate volatility.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 64.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-12-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-12-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-12-04 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011.
"Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?,"
NBER Working Papers
17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do mood swings drive business cycles and is it rational?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 98, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Ryo Jinnai, 2011. "News Shocks, Price Levels, and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-173, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.