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The perils of aggregating foreign variables in panel data models

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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi
  • Alexander Chudik
  • Alistair Dieppe

Abstract

The curse of dimensionality refers to the difficulty of including all relevant variables in empirical applications due to the lack of sufficient degrees of freedom. A common solution to alleviate the problem in the context of open economy models is to aggregate foreign variables by constructing trade-weighted cross-sectional averages. This paper provides two key contributions in the context of static panel data models. The first is to show under what conditions the aggregation of foreign variables (AFV) leads to consistent estimates (as the time dimension T is fixed and the cross section dimension N 8). The second is to design a formal test to assess the admissibility of the AFV restriction and to evaluate the small sample properties of the test by undertaking Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, we illustrate an application in the context of the current account empirical literature where the AFV restriction is rejected.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 111.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:111

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  1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2009. "Weak and Strong Cross Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 2689, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 0995, European Central Bank.
  3. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2011. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 4-22, July.
  4. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Pesaran, Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2010. "Econometric analysis of high dimensional VARs featuring a dominant unit," Working Paper Series 1194, European Central Bank.
  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy," Working Paper Series 1441, European Central Bank.
  8. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  11. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  14. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries and in the New EU Member States: An Intertemporal Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 593-618.
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