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Currency competition and inflation convergence

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Author Info
William C. Gruben
Darryl McLeod

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Abstract

All agree partial dollarization or currency substitution is a legacy of past inflation and exchange rate instability. Some argue partial dollarization contributes to exchange rate instability. However, if Central Banks respond to dollarization by lowering money growth and maximizing seigniorage revenue, inflation falls and converges on dollar inflation rates. We present a simple model of currency competition with open capital markets to illustrate these points. Empirical tests for Latin America and about twenty other countries suggest that dollarization is both a legacy of past inflation and a constraint on future inflation. Dollarization may complicate monetary policy and prudential regulation, but one silver lining is that currency competition appears to have accelerated the sharp fall in and convergence of Latin inflation rates over the past decade.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Center for Latin America Working Papers with number 0204.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddcl:0204

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Keywords: Dollarization;

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  2. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1992. "The inflation discipline of currency substitution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 827-845, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sturzenegger, Federico A, 1994. "Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 377-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Eliana Cardoso, 1992. "Inflation and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 4006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?," NBER Working Papers 5540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gianni De Nicoló & Alain Ize & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gomis-Porqueras, Pere & Serrano, Carlos & Somuano, Alejandro, 2000. "Currency substitution in Latin America - lessons from the 1990s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2340, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Robert J. Barro, 1983. "Inflationary Finance under Discretion and Rules," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Fridman Alla & Verbetsky Aleksey, 2001. "Currency Substitution in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 01-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
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