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Currency competition and inflation convergence

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  • William C. Gruben
  • Darryl McLeod

Abstract

All agree partial dollarization or currency substitution is a legacy of past inflation and exchange rate instability. Some argue partial dollarization contributes to exchange rate instability. However, if Central Banks respond to dollarization by lowering money growth and maximizing seigniorage revenue, inflation falls and converges on dollar inflation rates. We present a simple model of currency competition with open capital markets to illustrate these points. Empirical tests for Latin America and about twenty other countries suggest that dollarization is both a legacy of past inflation and a constraint on future inflation. Dollarization may complicate monetary policy and prudential regulation, but one silver lining is that currency competition appears to have accelerated the sharp fall in and convergence of Latin inflation rates over the past decade.

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File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/claepapers/2004/lawp0402.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Center for Latin America Working Papers with number 0204.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddcl:0204

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Keywords: Dollarization;

References

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  1. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gomis-Porqueras, Pere & Serrano, Carlos & Somuano, Alejandro, 2000. "Currency substitution in Latin America - lessons from the 1990s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2340, The World Bank.
  3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1998. "Monetary policy and the well-being of the poor," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 159-201.
  4. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
  5. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
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  7. Sturzenegger, Federico A, 1994. "Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 377-95, August.
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  9. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February.
  10. Gianni De Nicoló & Patrick Honohan & Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Fridman Alla & Verbetsky Aleksey, 2001. "Currency Substitution in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 01-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  12. Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October.
  13. Robert J. Barro, 1983. "Inflationary Finance under Discretion and Rules," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, February.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  15. Adam Bennett & Eduardo Borensztein & Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 171, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
  18. David Bowman, 2003. "Market power and inflation," International Finance Discussion Papers 783, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Dollarization: Analytical Issues," NBER Working Papers 8838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1992. "The inflation discipline of currency substitution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 827-845, May.
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