Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling
AbstractThis paper proposes a Bayesian nonparametric modeling approach for the return distribution in multivariate GARCH models. In contrast to the parametric literature, the return distribution can display general forms of asymmetry and thick tails. An infinite mixture of multivariate normals is given a flexible Dirichlet process prior. The GARCH functional form enters into each of the components of this mixture. We discuss conjugate methods that allow for scale mixtures and nonconjugate methods, which provide mixing over both the location and scale of the normal components. MCMC methods are introduced for posterior simulation and computation of the predictive density. Bayes factors and density forecasts with comparisons to GARCH models with Student-t innovations demonstrate the gains from our flexible modeling approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2012-09.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Mark J Jensen & John M Maheu, 2012. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling," Working Papers tecipa-458, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Multivariate GARCH Modeling," Working Paper Series 48_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2012-08-23 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2012-08-23 (Forecasting)
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