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Discussion of Cogley and Sargent's "Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S."

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Author Info
Marco Del Negro

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Abstract

Cogley and Sargent provide us with a very useful tool for empirical macroeconomics: a Gibbs sampler for the estimation of VARs with drifting coefficients and volatilities. The authors apply the tool to a VAR with three variables-inflation, unemployment, and the nominal interest rate-and two lags. This tool is a serious competitor to the identified-VAR-cum-Markov-switching technology recently developed by Sims (1999) and Sims and Zha (2002) for the study of economies that are subject to regime changes. However, the Gibbs sampler suffers from a curse of dimensionality: as more variables or more lags are added to the system, the computational burden of the estimation quickly grows out of proportion. My suggestions here are mainly aimed at making the tool more flexible, and hence more widely applicable.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2003-26.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2003-26

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Related research
Keywords: Equilibrium (Economics) ; Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics ; Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao A. Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ellis W. Tallman, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning: Some implications for policy and research," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
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