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A generalized method for detecting abnormal returns and changes in systematic risk

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  • Ken B. Cyree
  • Ramon P. DeGennaro

Abstract

The authors generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Their method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. The authors use their approach to study 132 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. The authors find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the announcement. None of these results is detectable using conventional methods. These results imply that (1) event studies that cannot account for information leakage may be biased, and (2) changes in systematic risk can occur in the absence of abnormal returns, and (3) regulators, investors and bank managers must evaluate each acquisition on its own merits; reliance on averages can mask important distinctions across acquisitions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2001-8.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2001-8

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Keywords: Bank mergers ; Econometric models ; Risk;

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  1. Malatesta, Paul H., 1986. "Measuring Abnormal Performance: The Event Parameter Approach Using Joint Generalized Least Squares," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 27-38, March.
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  6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  7. Ramon P. DeGennaro & James B. Thomson, 1994. "Anticipating bailouts: the incentive-conflict model and the collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund," Working Paper 9407, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
  9. Houston, Joel F. & Ryngaert, Michael D., 1994. "The overall gains from large bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1155-1176, December.
  10. Bar-Yosef, Sasson & Brown, Lawrence D, 1977. "A Reexamination of Stock Splits Using Moving Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1069-80, September.
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  12. Madura, Jeff & Wiant, Kenneth J., 1994. "Long-term valuation effects of bank acquisitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1135-1154, December.
  13. Karafiath, Imre, 1994. "On the Efficiency of Least Squares Regression with Security Abnormal Returns as the Dependent Variable," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 279-300, June.
  14. Lockwood, Larry J & Kadiyala, K Rao, 1988. "Risk Measurement for Event-Dependent Security Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 43-49, January.
  15. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  16. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tehranian, Hassan, 1992. "Changes in corporate performance associated with bank acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 211-234, April.
  17. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
  18. Brown, Keith C. & Lockwood, Larry J. & Lummer, Scott L., 1985. "An Examination of Event Dependency and Structural Change in Security Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 315-334, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kyle Hyndman, 2004. "Status Quo Effects In Bargaining: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 285, Econometric Society.
  2. Thorsten Lübbers, 2009. "Is Cartelisation Profitable? A Case Study of the Rhenish Westphalian Coal Syndicate, 1893-1913," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2009_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  3. Uhde, Andre & Farruggio, Christian & Michalak, Tobias C., 2013. "The light and dark side of TARP," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80004, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Christian Leuz & Catherine Schrand, 2009. "Disclosure and the Cost of Capital: Evidence from Firms’ Responses to the Enron Shock," NBER Working Papers 14897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Uhde, André & Michalak, Tobias C., 2010. "Securitization and systematic risk in European banking: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3061-3077, December.

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