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Minimum-variance kernels, economic risk premia, and tests of multi-beta models

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Author Info
Pierluigi Balduzzi
Cesare Robotti

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Abstract

This paper uses minimum-variance (MV) admissible kernels to estimate risk premia associated with economic risk variables and to test multi-beta models. Estimating risk premia using MV kernels is appealing because it avoids the need to 1) identify all relevant sources of risk and 2) assume a linear factor model for asset returns. Testing multi-beta models in terms of restricted MV kernels has the advantage that 1) the candidate kernel has the smallest volatility and 2) test statistics are easy to interpret in terms of Sharpe ratios. The authors find that several economic variables command significant risk premia and that the signs of the premia mostly correspond to the effect that these variables have on the risk-return trade-off, consistent with the implications of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (I-CAPM). They also find that the MV kernel implied by the I-CAPM, while formally rejected by the data, consistently outperforms a pricing kernel based on the size and book-to-market factors of Fama and French (1993).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2001-24.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2001-24

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Related research
Keywords: Risk ; Asset pricing ; Econometric models;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1992. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kirby, Chris, 1998. "The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 343-82.
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  12. Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1998. "The Risk and Return from Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 159-188, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Breeden, Douglas T & Gibbons, Michael R & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1989. " Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 231-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1993. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lorenzo Cappiello & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2008. "Estimates of foreign exchange risk premia: a pricing kernel approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 475-495, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Werker, B.J.M. & Goorbergh, R.W.J. van den & Roon, de F.A., 2003. "Economic hedging portfolios," Discussion Paper 102, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cesare Robotti, 2001. "The price of inflation and foreign exchange risk in international equity markets," Working Paper 2001-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005. "Mimicking portfolios, economic risk premia, and tests of multi-beta models," Working Paper 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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