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Minimum-variance kernels, economic risk premia, and tests of multi-beta models

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  • Pierluigi Balduzzi
  • Cesare Robotti

Abstract

This paper uses minimum-variance (MV) admissible kernels to estimate risk premia associated with economic risk variables and to test multi-beta models. Estimating risk premia using MV kernels is appealing because it avoids the need to 1) identify all relevant sources of risk and 2) assume a linear factor model for asset returns. Testing multi-beta models in terms of restricted MV kernels has the advantage that 1) the candidate kernel has the smallest volatility and 2) test statistics are easy to interpret in terms of Sharpe ratios. The authors find that several economic variables command significant risk premia and that the signs of the premia mostly correspond to the effect that these variables have on the risk-return trade-off, consistent with the implications of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (I-CAPM). They also find that the MV kernel implied by the I-CAPM, while formally rejected by the data, consistently outperforms a pricing kernel based on the size and book-to-market factors of Fama and French (1993).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2001-24.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2001-24

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Keywords: Risk ; Asset pricing ; Econometric models;

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References

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  1. Owen Lamont, . "Economic Tracking Portfolios."," CRSP working papers 489, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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  8. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
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  13. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  14. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
  15. Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E., 1998. "Testing for mean-variance spanning: A survey," Discussion Paper 1998-132, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Breeden, Douglas T & Gibbons, Michael R & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1989. " Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 231-62, June.
  17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  18. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1994. " Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-52, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lorenzo Cappiello & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2008. "Estimates of foreign exchange risk premia: a pricing kernel approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 475-495, November.
  2. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005. "Mimicking portfolios, economic risk premia, and tests of multi-beta models," Working Paper 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Cesare Robotti, 2001. "The price of inflation and foreign exchange risk in international equity markets," Working Paper 2001-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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