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Hysteresis e o comércio exterior de produtos industrializados brasileiros


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  • Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio
  • de Prince, Diogo
  • Camargo Scarpelli, Maíra


This article investigates the hypothesis of hysteresis for the Brazilian manufactured exportsand imports in recent years. For that it was used an empirical measure of strong hysteresis(macroeconomic) developed by Piscitelli et al. (2000) and tested its significance in sectoralsupply and demand equations for exports and in sectoral equations for import demand. Theresults shows that Brazilian manufactured exports are strongly determined by internationaldemand, being the empirical measure of real exchange rate expressed by the ratio betweeninternational prices and export prices nationals the relevant measure to explain the exportperformance. With respect to the hysteresis hypothesis, it was rejected for the aggregate ofmanufactures exports, but accepted in some industrial sectors. For imports this hypothesis wasaccepted for aggregate of manufactured imports and for ten industrial sectors.

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Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 253.

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Date of creation: 29 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:253

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Cited by:
  1. Castilho, Marta & Menéndez, Marta & Sztulman, Aude, 2012. "Trade Liberalization, Inequality, and Poverty in Brazilian States," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 821-835.


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