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Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities

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Author Info

  • Aleh Cherp

    (Central European University and Lund University)

  • Jessica Jewell

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Central European University)

  • Vadim Vinichenko

    (Central European University)

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC))

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    Abstract

    Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the global energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2014.29.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.29

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    Related research

    Keywords: Energy Security; Energy Scenarios; Long-Term Climate Policies; Fossil Resources Assumptions;

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    1. Grubb, Michael & Butler, Lucy & Twomey, Paul, 2006. "Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4050-4062, December.
    2. Stirling, Andrew, 1994. "Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment : Addressing the solution rather than the problem," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 195-216, March.
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