IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2013.90.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

Author

Listed:
  • Lion Hirth

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Vattenfall GmbH)

Abstract

This paper estimates the welfare-optimal market share of wind and solar power, explicitly taking into account their output variability. We present a theoretical valuation framework that consistently accounts for output variability over time, forecast errors, and the location of generators in the power grid, and evaluate the impact of these three factors on the marginal value of electricity from renewables. Then we estimate the optimal share of wind and solar power in Northwestern Europe from a calibrated numerical power market model. The optimal long-term share of wind power of total electricity consumption is estimated to be 20% at cost levels of 50 €/MWh, about three times the current market share of wind; but this estimate is subject to significant parameter uncertainty. Variability significantly impacts results: if winds were constant, the optimal share would be 60%. In addition, the effect of technological change, price shocks, and policies on the optimal share is assessed. We present and explain several surprising findings, including a negative impact of CO2 prices on optimal wind deployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment," Working Papers 2013.90, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.90
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2013-090.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lion Hirth & Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity," Working Papers 2014.39, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Neuhoff, Karsten & Ehrenmann, Andreas & Butler, Lucy & Cust, Jim & Hoexter, Harriet & Keats, Kim & Kreczko, Adam & Sinden, Graham, 2008. "Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1990-2008, July.
    3. Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Jägemann, Cosima & Bettzüge, Marc Oliver, 2011. "The economic value of storage in renewable power systems - the case of thermal energy storage in concentrating solar plants," EWI Working Papers 2011-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    4. Lise, Wietze & Kruseman, Gideon, 2008. "Long-term price and environmental effects in a liberalised electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 230-248, March.
    5. Andreas Schröder & Friedrich Kunz & Jan Meiss & Roman Mendelevitch & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Current and Prospective Costs of Electricity Generation until 2050," Data Documentation 68, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Richard Green, 2005. "Electricity and Markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(1), pages 67-87, Spring.
    7. Haller, Markus & Ludig, Sylvie & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 282-290.
    8. Heide, Dominik & von Bremen, Lueder & Greiner, Martin & Hoffmann, Clemens & Speckmann, Markus & Bofinger, Stefan, 2010. "Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2483-2489.
    9. Nagl, Stephan & Fürsch, Michaela & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2012. "The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe," EWI Working Papers 2012-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    10. Erin Baker & Meredith Fowlie & Derek Lemoine & Stanley S. Reynolds, 2013. "The Economics of Solar Electricity," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 387-426, June.
    11. Brigitte Knopf & Bjørn Bakken & Samuel Carrara & Amit Kanudia & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Silvana Mima & Eva Schmid & Detlef P. Van Vuuren, 2013. "Transforming The European Energy System: Member States' Prospects Within The Eu Framework," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-26.
    12. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    13. Bushnell, James, 2010. "Building Blocks: Investment in Renewable and Non-Renewable Technologies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31546, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma & Liebreich, Michael & MacGill, Ian & Chase, Jennifer & Shah, Jigar & Gielen, Dolf & Arent, Doug & Landfear, Doug & Zhengrong, Shi, 2013. "Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 329-338.
    15. Ueckerdt, Falko & Hirth, Lion & Luderer, Gunnar & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2013. "System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 61-75.
    16. Severin Borenstein, 2012. "The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 67-92, Winter.
    17. Richard Schmalensee, 2013. "The Performance of U.S. Wind and Solar Generating Units," NBER Working Papers 19509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hirth, Lion & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 934-947.
    19. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    20. MacCormack, John & Hollis, Aidan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Rosehart, William, 2010. "The large-scale integration of wind generation: Impacts on price, reliability and dispatchable conventional suppliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3837-3846, July.
    21. Martin, Brian & Diesendorf, Mark, 1983. "The economics of large-scale wind power in the UK A model of an optimally mixed CEGB electricity grid," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 259-266, September.
    22. Lamont, Alan D., 2008. "Assessing the long-term system value of intermittent electric generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1208-1231, May.
    23. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    24. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    25. Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Michael Luken and Ottmar Edenhofer, 2010. "Technological Change and International Trade - Insights from REMIND-R," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    26. Rosen, Johannes & Tietze-Stöckinger, Ingela & Rentz, Otto, 2007. "Model-based analysis of effects from large-scale wind power production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 575-583.
    27. Nelson, James & Johnston, Josiah & Mileva, Ana & Fripp, Matthias & Hoffman, Ian & Petros-Good, Autumn & Blanco, Christian & Kammen, Daniel M., 2012. "High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 436-447.
    28. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2011. "The Long-term Impact of Wind Power on Electricity Prices and Generating Capacity," Discussion Papers 11-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    29. Hernández-Moro, J. & Martínez-Duart, J.M., 2013. "Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 119-132.
    30. Tuohy, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Pumped storage in systems with very high wind penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1965-1974, April.
    31. Geoffrey J. Blanford, James H. Merrick, and David Young, 2014. "A Clean Energy Standard Analysis with the US-REGEN Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    32. Francis Bessière, 1970. "The "Investment '85" Model of Electricite de France," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 192-211, December.
    33. Markus Blesl & Tom Kober & Ralf Kuder & David Bruchof, 2012. "Implications of different climate protection regimes for the EU-27 and its member states through 2050," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, May.
    34. DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Keith, David W., 2006. "The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 395-410, March.
    35. Crew, Michael A & Fernando, Chitru S & Kleindorfer, Paul R, 1995. "The Theory of Peak-Load Pricing: A Survey," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 215-248, November.
    36. Peter O. Steiner, 1957. "Peak Loads and Efficient Pricing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 585-610.
    37. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
    38. William D. Nordhaus, 2014. "The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    39. Ben Hoen & Jason Brown & Thomas Jackson & Mark Thayer & Ryan Wiser & Peter Cappers, 2015. "Spatial Hedonic Analysis of the Effects of US Wind Energy Facilities on Surrounding Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 22-51, July.
    40. van der Zwaan, Bob & Rivera-Tinoco, Rodrigo & Lensink, Sander & van den Oosterkamp, Paul, 2012. "Cost reductions for offshore wind power: Exploring the balance between scaling, learning and R&D," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 389-393.
    41. Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2010. "Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2898-2910, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    2. Lion Hirth, Falko Ueckerdt, and Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity Generation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Lion Hirth & Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity," Working Papers 2014.39, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Hirth, Lion & Ueckerdt, Falko & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 925-939.
    5. Lion Hirth, 2013. "The Market Value of Variable Renewables. The Effect of Solar and Wind Power Variability on their Relative Price," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/36, European University Institute.
    6. Ueckerdt, Falko & Hirth, Lion & Luderer, Gunnar & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2013. "System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 61-75.
    7. Hirth, Lion & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 934-947.
    8. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    9. Ueckerdt, Falko & Brecha, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar & Sullivan, Patrick & Schmid, Eva & Bauer, Nico & Böttger, Diana & Pietzcker, Robert, 2015. "Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1799-1814.
    10. Christian Gambardella & Michael Pahle & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2016. "Do Benefits from Dynamic Tariffing Rise? Welfare Effects of Real-Time Pricing under Carbon-Tax-Induced Variable Renewable Energy Supply," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1621, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Mills, Andrew D. & Wiser, Ryan H., 2015. "Strategies to mitigate declines in the economic value of wind and solar at high penetration in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 269-278.
    12. Alexandra G. Papadopoulou & George Vasileiou & Alexandros Flamos, 2020. "A Comparison of Dispatchable RES Technoeconomics: Is There a Niche for Concentrated Solar Power?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    14. Hirth, Lion & Müller, Simon, 2016. "System-friendly wind power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 51-63.
    15. Stephan Nagl, Michaela Fursch, and Dietmar Lindenberger, 2013. "The Costs of Electricity Systems with a High Share of Fluctuating Renewables: A Stochastic Investment and Dispatch Optimization Model for Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    16. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    17. Klaus Eisenack & Mathias Mier, 2019. "Peak-load pricing with different types of dispatchability," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-124, December.
    18. Helm, Carsten & Mier, Mathias, 2016. "Efficient diffusion of renewable energies: A roller-coaster ride," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145893, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2014. "Residual Load, Renewable Surplus Generation and Storage Requirements in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 73, pages 65-79.
    20. Romeiro, Diogo Lisbona & Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de & Losekann, Luciano, 2020. "Systemic value of electricity sources – What we can learn from the Brazilian experience?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wind Power; Solar Power; Variable Renewables; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Numerical Optimization; Competitiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.