Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis
AbstractThe general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with a fixed-effect spatial lag model and a fixed-effect spatial error model. The fixedeffect spatial lag model seems to better capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2008.8.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Energy demand in China; Coal demand in China; Chinese provinces; Panel data; Spatial econometrics; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Cattaneo, Cristina & Manera, Matteo & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011. "Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-35, January.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2009-01-17 (China)
- NEP-ENE-2009-01-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2009-01-17 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-01-17 (Forecasting)
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