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Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the Usa

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Hamburg University)

Abstract

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2006.117.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.117

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Keywords: Climate Change; Emissions Scenarios; USA;

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References

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  1. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1966. "Objectives, Constraints and Outcomes in Optimal Growth Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 212, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 01/85, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  4. Miketa, Asami & Mulder, Peter, 2005. "Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors: Patterns of growth and convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 429-453, May.
  5. Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
  6. Palmer, Karen & Burtraw, Dallas, 2005. "Cost-effectiveness of renewable electricity policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 873-894, November.
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  8. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
  9. Toth, Ferenc L. & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2006. "Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, January.
  10. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  11. Richard S.J. Tol & Stephen W. Pacala & Robert H. Socolow, 2006. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use And Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Usa," Working Papers FNU-100, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Mar 2006.
  12. Nordhaus, William, 2007. "Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchasing power parity or market exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 349-372, May.
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  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Emission scenarios
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Cited by:
  1. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
  2. Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Incomplete Environmental Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and Emissions Leakage," NBER Working Papers 14421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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