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A Climate-Change Policy Induced Shift from Innovations in Energy Production to Energy Savings

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  • Reyer Gerlagh

    (IVM, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit)

Abstract

We develop an endogenous growth model with capital, labor and energy as production factors and three productivity variables that measure accumulated innovations for energy production, energy savings, and neutral growth. All markets are complete and perfect, except for research, for which we assume that the marginal social value exceeds marginal costs by factor four. The model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant trends over the 1970-2000 period. The model contains a simple climate module, and is used to assess the impact of Induced Technological Change (ITC) for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (450 ppmv). ITC is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by about a factor 2, and to reduce costs of such a policy by about factor 10. Numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2004.128.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2004.128

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Keywords: Induced technological change; Environmental taxes; Partial equilibrium;

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  1. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Roumasset, James & Tse, Kinping, 1997. "Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1201-34, December.
  2. Reyer Gerlagh & Wietze Lise, 2003. "Induced Technological Change Under Carbon Taxes," Working Papers 2003.84, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Richard G. Newell & Adam B. Jaffe & Robert N. Stavins, 1998. "The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 6437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bovenberg, A.L. & Smulders, J.A., 1996. "Transitional impacts of environmental policy in an endogenous growth model," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73103, Tilburg University.
  5. Smulders, J.A. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 1993. "The trade-off between environmental care and long-term growth: Pollution in three proto-type growth models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153405, Tilburg University.
  6. Bovenberg, A.L. & Smulders, J.A., 1993. "Environmental quality and pollution-saving technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model," Discussion Paper 1993-21, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mathai, Koshy, 2000. "Optimal CO2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-38, January.
  8. Butter, F.A.G. den & Hofkes, M.W., 1993. "Sustainable development with extractive and non-extractive use of the environment in production," Serie Research Memoranda 0055, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  9. Magill, Michael J. P., 1977. "Some new results on the local stability of the process of capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 174-210, June.
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  11. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 211-253, August.
  12. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Jefferson, Gary H, 1988. "The Aggregate Production Function and Productivity Growth: Verdoorn's Law Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 671-91, December.
  14. Buonanno, Paolo & Carraro, Carlo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2003. "Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-34, February.
  15. Carraro, Carlo & Galeotti, Marzio, 1997. "Economic growth, international competitiveness and environmental protection: R & D and innovation strategies with the WARM model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 2-28, March.
  16. Smulders, J.A., 1995. "Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153411, Tilburg University.
  17. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2003. "Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-57, February.
  18. Gerlagh, R. & Zwaan, B.C.C. van der, 2004. "A sensitivity analysis of timing and costs of Greenhouse gas emission reductions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3764009, Tilburg University.
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