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Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting

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Author Info
Colin F. Camerer
Abstract

To test whether naturally occurring markets can be strategically manipulated, $500 and $1,000 bets were made, then cancelled, at horse racing tracks. The net effects of these costless temporary bets give clues about how market participants react to information large bets might contain. The bets moved odds on horses visibly (compared to matched-pair control horses with similar prebet odds) and had a slight tendency to draw money toward the horse that was temporarily bet, but the net effect was close to zero and statistically insignificant. The results suggest that some bettors inferred information from bets and others did not, and their actions roughtly cancelled out.

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Paper provided by The Field Experiments Website in its series Natural Field Experiments with number 0026.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:feb:natura:0026

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982. "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Duxbury, Darren, 1995. " Experimental Asset Markets within Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 331-71, December.
  3. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sunder, Shyam, 1992. "Market for Information: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 667-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Benabou, Roland & Laroque, Guy, 1992. "Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 921-58, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Camerer, Colin & Weigelt, Keith, 1991. "Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 463-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dann, Larry Y. & Mayers, David & Raab, Robert Jr., 1977. "Trading rules, large blocks and the speed of price adjustment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 3-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2003. "Late Informed Betting and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Discussion Papers 03-33, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Duffy & Eric O'N. Fisher, 2005. "Sunspots in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 510-529, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey P. Carpenter & Glenn W. Harrison, 2005. "Field Experiments in Economics: An Introduction," Artefactual Field Experiments 0030, The Field Experiments Website. [Downloadable!]
  5. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List, 2008. "Field Experiments in Economics: The Past, The Present, and The Future," NBER Working Papers 14356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws084110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
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