The Simultaneity Bias of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence for Brazil
AbstractWe test ex ante uncovered interest parity (UIP) for Brazil using survey data of ex- change rate expectations from the Brazilian Central Bank. Using data from 2001M11 until 2007M12 and Ordinary Least Squares, we found that the estimated UIP parameter is smaller than one, which is a common ¯nding. We then develop a model that explains how a negative bias can arise due to the simultaneous actions between the Central Bank and speculators. Our results, using Instrumental Variables, show that the bias can be re- duced, and lend support to ex ante UIP. The reduced form, dynamically complete model provides the best ¯t for expected exchange rate changes, as it aims to represent the data generation process of the observed data, in contrast to the single structural equation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 08_20.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; Simultaneity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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"A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship,"
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4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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