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Reducing Spanish unemployment under the EMU

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Author Info
Olivier Blanchard
Juan F. Jimeno

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Abstract

Spain enter the EMU with an unemployment rate roughly ten percentage Points higher than the Euro average - 19% versus 9%. Can it reasonably hope to eliminate this differential and join its Euro partners in further lowering unemployment? If so, how long will it take? And what will it take? The Spanish economy has grown at close to 3% per year, and the unemployment rate has fallen by 4 points, from 23% in 1995 to 19% in 1998. This has given hope to those who think that unemployment can indeed be lowered at a steady pace. However, Spain has just gone on the Euro. Spain will now have the same interest rate as its Euro-partners. And the margin of maneuver on the other macroeconomic instrument, fiscal policy, will reamin very limited. Spain will have to decrease its unemployment rate, with one of its two hand to decrease its unemployment rate, with one of its two hands tied behind its back. This seems a tough challenge. First, Spain has to grow much faster than its Euro-partners. Second, this growth has to meet some conditions. Banced growth requires a change in the composition of demand, a lower share of consumption and government expenditures and a higher share of investment. Moreover, Spain will have to achieve a lower inflation rate than its partners, perhaps even deflation. The least it can be said is that it may not be easy. There lies the challenge facing Spain under EMU.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 99-02.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:9902

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  1. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Olivier Blanchard, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment: Unemployment, Capital Accumulation, and Factor Prices," NBER Working Papers 6566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jennifer Hunt, 1998. "Hours Reductions as Work-Sharing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 339-381. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Samuel Bentolila & Juan F. Jimeno, 2003. "Spanish Unemployment: The End of the Wild Ride?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gilles Saint Paul & Samuel Bentolila, 2000. "Will EMU Increase Eurosclerosis?," Economics Working Papers 449, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Christian González-Martel* & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on arifitial neural networks : evidence from the Madrid stock market," Working Papers 99-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. JUNCAL CUñNADO & FERNANDO PÉREZ DE GRACIA, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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